If the Ballon d'Or goes where it's supposed to go this year, Harry Kane will be the hardest man in football to argue against.
France Football revealed the 30-man and 30-woman shortlists on Tuesday, and for England supporters, there is plenty to shout about. Kane, Jude Bellingham and Declan Rice are all nominated on the men's side. Alessia Russo and Alex Greenwood carry the flag in the women's vote. Five English players on the list. The pub debate is already writing itself.
Kane Is the Story
Let's not be coy about this. Kane put up numbers last season that belong in a different sport. Sixty-one goals in 51 games for Bayern Munich, who won the German double. Six more at the World Cup for England. That is not a good season. That is a historically ridiculous season, and the odds reflect it. He is the favourite, and it is hard to sit here and make a serious case otherwise.
Bellingham and Rice were both prominent at the World Cup too, and Rice's club form deserves its own mention. He played a key role as Arsenal ended a 22-year wait for the Premier League title. If you want the full picture of that title run, [our Premier League talking points from this season](/uprise/football/premier-league-10-talking-points-from-the-weekends-action) have been tracking it closely.
The wider men's field is genuinely interesting, though. Lamine Yamal is second favourite after winning La Liga with Barcelona and the World Cup with Spain. Rodri sits just behind him. Ousmane Dembélé, who won the award last year, has been nominated again, as has Kylian Mbappé, who made history at this summer's World Cup by overtaking Lionel Messi for all-time World Cup goals, moving to 22. Messi himself is on the list after guiding Argentina to the World Cup final and winning MLS with Inter Miami. The man has eight Ballon d'Or awards. He keeps finding ways to stay relevant.
The Women's Award Is Wide Open
On the women's side, two-time winner Alexia Putellas is in the mix, alongside Ewa Pajor and Melchie Dumornay. Aitana Bonmatí, who won the award for the past three years running, does not make the cut this time around after missing most of the season through injury. She did return for the end of Barcelona's quadruple-winning campaign, but it was not enough to earn a nomination.
Russo finished third in last year's voting and scored 24 goals in 40 club appearances this time around. That is a strong case. Greenwood, the Manchester City captain, won the Women's Super League and FA Cup last season. [Man City started this WSL season in strong form](/uprise/football/shaw-brace-gives-man-city-winning-wsl-start), and Greenwood's leadership has been central to that setup. [Arsenal's WSL presence has been building too](/uprise/football/wsl-talking-points-palace-result-in-doubt-after-substitution-nightmare), with Russo at the heart of it.
The ceremony itself is moving from Paris to London on 26 October, marking 70 years since the first award was won by England's Stanley Matthews. The symbolism is not subtle. Whether Kane adds to it depends on the voters.
Our take: Kane wins it. The numbers are unanswerable, the timing is perfect, and if a player who scored 61 goals in a season does not get this award, someone needs to explain the criteria from the beginning.