We've been here before with this fight. Promises, posturing, and then silence. So forgive us if we don't pop the champagne at the words "100 per cent on." But Fury's manager Spencer Brown is saying exactly that, Cardiff is now in the mix as a venue, and the whole thing is starting to feel, cautiously, like it might actually be real this time.
Brown told Sky Sports directly: "I'm 100 per cent that the fight will happen." He went further, describing it as the "British Boxing Bonanza that we all hoped for taking place in Britain," with November and December both in play. His preference is December, and his reasoning is hard to argue with. Everyone winding down for the holidays, the country looking for something to get excited about, and this fight as the centrepiece. Best Christmas party in the world, he called it. He's not wrong.
Cardiff, Wembley, and the people holding the keys
Three venues are apparently still being considered, with Cardiff and Wembley confirmed as two of them. The Welsh Rugby Union made their pitch back in July, talking up the stadium's closable roof, sight lines, and city-centre location. A venue that can shut its roof for a boxing event in December is not a trivial selling point. Cardiff has history in the sport, and frankly, it would be a brilliant setting for something this big.
What matters as much as the venue, though, is who actually has the power to close this deal. Brown was clear on that: Eddie Hearn and Frank Warren are both on board, but the final word sits with Turki Al-Sheikh, Netflix and SELA. Hearn's own comments to Sky Sports were measured but pointed. "We continue to do everything we can to bring this fight to the UK. We are in constant communication with Netflix and SELA." That is not the language of a man who has it locked in. That is a man still working the phones.
[Usyk's camp have already poured cold water on any idea of Fury sliding into a backup role for the Joshua fight](/uprise/boxing/usyks-camp-dismiss-furys-offer-to-be-backup-plan-for), which tells you where Fury's priorities are sitting right now. He needs this fight, and Brown says he has been on board with it since the beginning. That tracks.
Where we actually are
The talks are ongoing. The venues are being assessed. The promoters are aligned. The sticking points are above their pay grade, sitting with the broadcasters and the Saudi money that ultimately controls the calendar.
Brown's confidence is genuine, or at least it sounds it. But "inching closer" is doing a lot of work in that quote. This fight has been close before. [Conor Benn has been waiting on fights that fell apart too](/uprise/boxing/benn-blasts-bottler-garcia-after-americans-no-show-at-face-off), and he is not the only one in British boxing who knows how quickly these things can unravel.
Our take: December in Cardiff, full roof, full house, would be one of the great nights in British boxing history. We want it as much as anyone. But until Turki Al-Sheikh and Netflix put pen to paper, we are keeping one eye on the exit. The bones are there. Someone just needs to actually close it.